5 Things You Need to Know About Big Box Logistics In Q3 2024
- At the end of Q3 2024, Big Box take-up has reached 18.4 million sq ft. That’s ahead of 2023 (18.2 million sq ft) but slightly behind pre-Covid averages (21.1 million sq ft).
- DTRE Big Box Vacancy rate (all units over 100,000 sq ft) has remained stationary at 6.8% through the quarter.
- Just 5 million sq ft of speculative developments to be delivered in the next 12 months – which without any further additions would be the lowest level of speculative completions since 2017 (4.8m sq ft).
- Q3 saw £1.2bn transact in the capital markets, taking 2024 volumes to £4.4bn by the end of September, 8% ahead of the pre-Covid (2010-19) Q1-Q3 average.
- Q4 will be busier with further monetary easing anticipated and with signs of core investors returning, we will likely see greater competitive tension for best in class assets with strong fundamentals.
Occupational
Q3 2024 Big Box take-up has reached 18.4 million sq ft. That’s ahead of 2023 (18.2 million sq ft) but slightly behind pre-Covid averages. The traditionally slower summer market saw 5 million sq ft transact, with the biggest letting being Cain International’s Link674 in Ellesmere Port (674,000 sq ft).
After twelve successive quarters of decline in the rolling annual take-up – Q2 had seen an uptick of 5.6%, suggesting a floor to demand may have been reached. However, that uptick has since been reversed with Q3 impacted by the slower summer months and lack of bigger deals – with only one deal bigger than 500,000 sq ft and only twenty-four deals in total (on average Q3 has seen 44 deals over the last 10 years).
Activity was noticeable from the 3PL’s with EVRi taking three units in Sheffield, Avonmouth and Lutterworth with distributors generally accounting for 39% of the deal volume. The retailers accounted for the largest share of deals with retailers accounting for 44% by deal volume. Tesco at Mountpark Hinckley (491,000 sq ft) and B&M Retail at Link 674, Ellesmere Port (674,264 sq ft) the two standout deals.
A current theme ‘deal friction’ – the time taken for transactions to complete; DTRE are currently tracking close to 9 million sq ft of units that are under offer, of which over half were under offer at the end of Q2.
In a normal cycle we would have expected these deals to have concluded and added close to 4.5 million sq ft to the total – which would put overall volumes ahead of 2023 (18.2 million sq ft) and the pre-Covid average (21.1 million sq ft).
The DTRE Big Box Vacancy rate (all units over 100,000 sq ft) has remained stationary at 6.8% through the quarter. Vacancy rates have remained unchanged overall even though new build supply is falling because tenants are ‘upscaling’ - they continue to vacate older second-hand units and occupy new and better units. New build units now represent only 35% of total supply - down from over 40% in the previous quarter.
New speculative developments; there is currently only 8.19 million sq ft under construction, of which 6 units (39% by square foot) are in units of over 400,000 sq ft and 39% are due to complete in the remaining three months of this year.
There is just 5 million sq ft of speculative developments to be delivered in the next 12 months – which without any further additions would be the lowest level of speculative completions since 2017 (4.8m sq ft). Even with significant additions 2025 looks set to be well behind the 12.6 million sq ft we’ve seen on average in each year from 2018 – 2024.
Rental growth has remained elevated, despite the effects of inflation fading, ensuring ‘real’ rental growth is being delivered to the sector. In the twelve months to August 2022 distribution warehouse rents grew 14.2% before falling to 6.3% by September 2023.
Rental growth has remained in that range for the subsequent 12 months and at the end of August ’24 annualised rental growth was 5%. However, at the same time the consumer prices index measure of inflation (CPI) has fallen from 11.1% in October 2022 to 2.2% for year to end August 2024.
Capital Markets
There is a renewed sense of optimism that we are moving off the bottom and a new cycle is about to begin. The Bank of England’s 25bp rate cut was a positive step but was already ‘priced in’. The next cuts should provide confidence, as the pricing on 5-year swaps and 10-Year gilts move towards sub 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively. Significant dry powder continues to target the sector, and with supply set to fall in 2025, and rents likely to rise, buyers conviction should return.
Q3 saw £1.2 bn of deals complete, with the largest transaction in the sector being Prologis’ purchase of Western Avenue Business Park for £125.05 million from DTZIM, and marking their first significant deployment in over a year. The largest single asset transaction was Pontegadea’s 1st purchase of a UK logistics asset at SEGRO Park, Heathrow for £65.5m. The largest portfolio was Mirastar & KKR’s purchase of Project Tournament a collection of five single let “Big Box” assets for £115.25m. DTRE advised the purchasers on all three transactions.
The £1.2 bn transacted in Q3 has resulted in volumes reaching £4.4bn by the end of September, 8% ahead of the pre-Covid average (2010-19). Of note is that this is the first quarter of the year where volumes were not supported by large M&A activity, with five deals over £50m equating to 44% of the volume during the quarter.
The further anticipated rate cuts should help grease the wheels of the capital markets, with 5-year swaps now trading at 3.6%, down from 4% in early June and the cost of debt on good quality logistics assets shrinking by c.120 bps since the start of Q2’24.
However, whilst Q4 will likely be busier, typically there remains a 25bps ‘bid/ask spread’ – with core investors starting to return we are seeing the return of competitive tension and the potential for that gap to start closing. Outside of the Big Box sector we have seen examples of this with reversionary mid box schemes trading in the low to mid 3’s.
