Terms & Conditions

Privacy Policy

LONDON

CAMBRIDGE

MANCHESTER

Homepage

Services

Delivering tailored insights into portfolio risks and mitigation strategies to protect asset values and support clients throughout the entire transaction life cycle.

About

View All

A provider of expert logistics and industrial advice, with full service, end-to-end capabilities across integrated capital markets and leasing teams.

Industrial & Logistics

Trusted advice that means science thrives, development flourishes and investments succeed.

Offices, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

 Unlocking key decision-makers at capital source to deliver value for investors and developers.

Alternative Capital Markets

Delivering actionable sustainability strategies.

Sustainability Consultancy

Services 

Databooks

DTRE’s Industrial & Logistics Databook provides easy-to-access, real-time market intelligence, delivering critical insights into regional markets across the UK.

{Integrated within each sector team,} we see what they see and ensure that our facts and figures are instructed by market realities.
 
This enables us to uncover {verifiable long-term industry trends,} as well as the granular, asset-by-asset understandings that unlock {actionable recommendations} for our clients.

Our team is made up of {real estate specialists with research expertise,} not the other way around. We look beyond the numbers to ensure we always have an opinion and can translate vast quantities of data into {advice that matters.}
 
Driven by {a comprehensive array of data sources,} we can provide tailored data solutions and insights to equip our clients with the knowledge required to {tackle what lies ahead.}
 
- Bespoke research & insight
- Sector intelligence
- Asset performance analysis
 

Overview

Research is at the {heart of DTRE}

Key Contacts

Research & insights 

Research & Insights

We surface and deliver verifiable long-term industry trends, as well as the granular, asset-by-asset understandings that unlock actionable recommendations for our clients.

View all

Regular, verified updates on the UK’s logistics and industrial, science and technology, and alternative markets.

Market Intelligence

Information and insight on the latest deals and instructions, appointments, team news and more.

News

The latest opinions from the DTRE team, backed by market-leading data and reflective of today’s market realities.

Credible Opinions

Spotlighting the leaders shaping the future of UK industrial & logistics real estate, hosted by Robert Taylor and Mark Webster.

Podcasts

Property Search

Our team is strategic and 
collaborative, promising a service 
{that is tenacious and honest.}

People

Careers

Find Us

Our Offices

Contact

Lab and mid-tech take-up reached 312,100 sq ft in H1 2026, up 35% year-on-year. Cambridge led the Golden Triangle, with 149,800 sq ft of take-up. Only 17,300 sq ft was for lab space however, and every deal fell below 5,000 sq ft across the Sidney Sussex Building, Bio-Innovation Centre and Moneta Building. Mid-tech space made up 88% of Cambridge take-up, driven by defence occupiers expanding on the back of manufacturing contracts and funding won since the outbreak of the Iran war in February.

London take-up reached 95,800 sq ft in H1, of which 65% of take-up was of mid-tech space at Imperial's Grapht Works. Lab take-up was led by activity at Kadans' MAYDE, Brandon Road, and by Humanoid taking the fitted lab floor at British Land and RLAM's 1 Triton Square. These figures exclude the major 88,500 sq ft and 158,000 sq ft deals to frontier AI companies OpenAI at Jahn Court and Anthropic, at 1 Triton Square. AI companies are taking lab-enabled space for the globally recognised AI location, access to talent, and enhanced power and technical specification of the buildings.

A further 470,300 sq ft was under offer at the close of June across the Golden Triangle. This is more than three times ahead of last year. Despite a relatively subdued half year of take-up for Oxford, 186,700 sq ft was under offer here.

DTRE are tracking 2.2 million sq ft of total named demand across the Golden Triangle by the end of the half year, with active demand of just over 1 million sq ft. This is up 30% year on year, driven by Cambridge where active demand has increased by 85% year on year.

Supply across the Golden Triangle rose to 2.1 million sq ft, with the Q2 completions of Breakthrough Properties' Vitrum and Kadans' Merlin Place in Cambridge, alongside Sciopolis' One Portal Way in London. This is up from 781,000 sq ft at the close of the same period last year, and shows that, while demand and take up are improving, they are not yet offsetting the rapid delivery of space.

The development pipeline remains substantial on paper, with 3.2 million sq ft currently under construction. 500,000 sq ft of that was pre-let by the close of June. Most development is concentrated in London, with Canary Wharf Group and Kadans Science Partners' One North Quay accounting for nearly 1 million sq ft of that. DTRE are tracking a further 13 million sq ft of potential supply in the pipeline to the end of 2028, but with zero new starts in Q2, we anticipate many will not start until further up-and-built supply is absorbed.

£3 billion of venture capital was raised across the Golden Triangle in H1, up 60% on the £1.8 billion raised in the same period last year. Whilst VC into Oxford was subdued at £146 million, VC raised into Cambridge-headquartered companies alone rose 74%, with London's total similarly rising by 73%. These totals are however distorted by two significant raises, with Isomorphic Labs making up 69% of London's total and CellCentric 29% of Cambridge's. Instead, we can look at the median deal size across the Golden Triangle which has climbed from c.£1 million in 2024 to c.£3 million by mid-2026.

The funding environment remains difficult, and raising is still taking longer than anticipated, especially with much of the available capital being absorbed by AI businesses. Despite this, occupiers are beginning to view options while they fundraise, and running the search and the raise in tandem is closing the gap from companies raising, to then leasing space. That lag from raise to lease has shortened in all three markets: Cambridge from c.2.5 quarters in 2023 to 2 in 2025, London halving from 4 quarters to 2, and Oxford from 8.5 quarters to 5. Once the 2026 cohort has progressed, we anticipate this gap to compress further.
The data continues to support our thesis from our last report, demonstrating green shoots of recovery across the market. GSK's July commitment to 300,000 sq ft at Prologis' Discovery Drive on the Cambridge Biomedical Campus only supports our view. Set against the 470,300 sq ft under offer at the end of June, the second half of the year should outperform the first. We remain confident that the corner is being turned.

Science & Technology Golden Triangle Market Report - H1 2026

5 Things You Need to Know About Big Box Logistics in H1'2026

Take-up of units over 100,000 sq ft reached 9.2m sq ft in Q2 2026 across 34 deals, the stronger of the two quarters this year and enough to lift first-half take-up to 16.8m sq ft. That runs 0.6% ahead of Q2'25 and 29% above the post-Covid quarterly average (2023 to 2025). Outside of the Covid-distorted years this is the strongest first half on record and for a market that has spent much of the last two years being told to brace for a slowdown, that is an impressive return and, furthermore, momentum shows little sign of fading. A further 11.7m sq ft is currently under offer, of which 45% sits in existing stock, demonstrating occupiers' willingness to take well-located 'second-hand' space where the deal stacks up, and giving confidence in a solid H2 to come.

A retail-led quarter, in a market that keeps rotating

Q2 had a distinctly retail flavour. Retailers accounted for 49% of take-up in the quarter, led by Marks & Spencer (437,000 sq ft, Fradley) and Currys (397,000 sq ft, Newark), with a cluster of online names (Online Home Shop, AO World and a second Amazon commitment at Thurrock) hinting at a return of e-commerce demand. Third-party logistics providers (3PLs) took a further 36%, with Bleckmann (761,000 sq ft, Lutterworth), ID Logistics (673,000 sq ft, Rugby) and CEVA (508,000 sq ft, Derby) all committing to scale.

On size, the bigger requirement has returned. The average deal in the first half came in at c.256,000 sq ft, with units of 300,000 sq ft and above accounting for half of all floorspace. After the more cautious commitments of 2022 to 2024, when occupiers were digesting their pandemic-era expansion, sixteen deals of 300,000 sq ft or more completed in the first half.

Which brings us to supply, and the issue that increasingly defines the prime end of the market. The most striking feature of the first half is how much of it was met by second-hand space. Second-hand accounted for 46% of take-up, its highest share in years, and of the sixteen deals over 300,000 sq ft, seven went into existing rather than new stock. That is not necessarily occupier preference but rather a lack of choice.

According to DXTRE (DTRE's proprietary database), across the 300,000 sq ft plus size bands there is now very little genuinely new, ready-to-occupy space. In the 400,000 to 500,000 sq ft band, several of the new build options do not complete until 2027 (WestWorks in Q1 2027 and Stafford 475 in Q2 2027), and at 500,000 sq ft and above the largest available units are overwhelmingly second-hand or sublease space, with Wayfair's 1.2m sq ft at Magna Park offered on assignment and the handful of new build options either already under offer (M1 XL at Sawley) or not yet ready (Panattoni's S915 at Swindon). The genuinely new, large, available box is becoming a rarity.

With the speculative pipeline subdued, just under 6m sq ft due over the next 12 months against a long-run average of c.10.9m sq ft, and developers still constrained by land costs and construction cost inflation, this shortage will not resolve quickly. Expect a supply crunch in prime big box over 300,000 sq ft to become a defining theme through the second half and into 2027, and the consequences are clear enough. Upward pressure on headline rents for the best new product, a tightening of incentives on Grade A space as choice narrows, and more occupiers pushed towards design and build or, when time, and / or capital, is not on their side, well-located second-hand stock.

Fig 2. Big Box Headline Rents (Average achieved £ per sq ft, units over 100,000 sq ft.)

The DTRE Big Box Vacancy Rate edged up to 7.55%, from 7.3% at the end of Q1, but the move is modest and secondary-led. Grade A availability remains tight at 2.6%, down from 2.9% at end Q1'26. The Midlands continues to dominate supply, with the East and West Midlands together accounting for c.36% of the UK's total availability, reaffirming the region's status as the UK's logistics heartland, but the Midlands is a microcosm of the wider supply disconnect seen across the UK. Of the 97 available units in the region, just 5 are new build and larger than 300,000 sq ft and with such little new prime space coming through, we would expect prime vacancy to tighten further even as the headline rate tracks sideways.

In terms of rental growth, the long climb in rents hasn’t dissipated. Average achieved headline rents on big boxes have risen steadily from the c.£5 to £7 per sq ft range that prevailed through the 2010s to c.£9.29 per sq ft so far in 2026, the highest in the series. The gap between new and second-hand is now firmly established, with new build averaging c.£10.53 per sq ft in the first half against c.£8.41 per sq ft for second-hand. At the prime end the tone is firmer still, with £20.00 per sq ft achieved on new build at Gatwick and Amazon paying £17.50 per sq ft at Crawley.

As we move into the second half of the year don't expect the narrative to change too much. There remains a broad, logistics and retail-led demand base, with larger requirements firmly back, and rents on the best space firm and holding. To summarise, at halfway through 2026, the occupational market is in better shape than the prevailing mood music would suggest, and with prime supply thinning, the race-for-space at the top end is only going to intensify.

If the occupational market spent Q2 quietly getting on with it, the capital markets spent the quarter staring at the headlines.

The conflict involving Iran dragged on through the period, pushing oil higher and reigniting an inflation scare that had looked to be fading. UK CPI held at 2.8% in May, but masked a services reading that jumped to 3.7%, and the 10-year gilt pushed back towards 4.8% in mid-June as the Strait of Hormuz risk premium built. With the Bank of England holding rates steady and the cuts the market had banked on pushed further out, the 'risk-free' rate gave investors little to work with.

For investors, it's a familiar story to previous years. The higher-for-longer narrative with its read across to gilts and swaps kept the bid/ask spread wide and therefore volumes subdued, with several processes paused or recalibrated in some way through the quarter as buyers reset their entry points against a moving geopolitical backdrop.

On a provisional basis, £925m of industrial and logistics traded in Q2. The two biggest deals were both portfolios, with ICG acquiring the Springbox Portfolio from Equites Property for c.£200m at a net initial yield (NIY) of 5.26%, EQT's c.£195m acquisition of a 1.55m sq ft package from Tritax (6.10% NIY). The biggest single-let deal was Copley Point's purchase of a 375,000 sq ft B&Q unit in Swindon from Marq Logistics (formerly GLP) for c.£58m, 5.30% NIY. Where the income and the covenant are right, prime pricing has held firm, as demonstrated by the Hines purchase of Heathrow Logistics Park last week for £135m/3.5% NIY, ahead of guide and a tight net initial yield (There is an outstanding rent review that will push the entry yield towards 5% and the acquisition has a reversionary yield of 6%).

Away from the prime, the picture was softer. The average NIY on big box deals drifted out to c.6.45% in Q2, from c.6.07% in Q1, as secondary and shorter-income assets repriced. Project Sheem (c.£125m, 7.25% NIY) and the Refresco unit at Pontefract (7.51% NIY) sat at the wider end, a fair reflection of where appetite thins out, pricing can drift.

However, there were signs of relief into quarter-end. The interim de-escalation between the US and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pulled oil down to low $70s a barrel and inflation expectations back, and gilts eased towards 4.74%. Whilst there will be no return to 2021-style pricing, the direction of travel late in the quarter is a positive step in the right direction.

Expect the second half to be defined by the same two forces that shaped the first.

On the occupational side, a shallow speculative pipeline (well below the c.10.9m sq ft long-run rolling four-quarter average) running into steady, broad-based demand should keep prime vacancy tight and headline rents on new, efficient space firm and the current near 11 million sq ft under offer gives the market a running start.

On capital markets, much rests on Burnham, his choice of Chancellor and the outlook for rates, swaps and gilts. If the late-Q2 easing in oil and inflation expectations holds, and the Bank of England finds room to move later in the year, the bid/ask spread that has frustrated the market for three years should narrow. The anticipated re-organisation of the Local Government Pension Schemes (LGPS) remains a potential source of core capital for single-let logistics, and there remains a significant amount of dry powder still admiring the sector from the sidelines, and buyers with conviction will be rewarded.

 A single-let unit upon which a new lease or occupier freehold purchase has completed (does not include lease renewals/re-gears) and is not conditional upon planning. Deals that have been agreed but remain conditional to planning remain classified as ‘under offer’.

 Currently available. Newly developed units are added to the supply schedule upon reaching practical completion.

New or recently refurbished Big Box stock built to modern institutional specification. Typically clear internal height of 12m or more, a modern dock-leveller ratio, 50m+ yard depth, EPC rating of A or A+, and BREEAM Very Good or better. Grade A includes both newly speculatively-built and some ‘second-hand’ units that continue to meet this specification. Built in last 20 years.

Functional distribution stock that falls short of Grade A on one or more key specifications — typically lower eaves (c.8–10m), older construction, mid-range EPC ratings (B/C/D), and/or less generous yard and dock provision. Usually older Grade A product that has been overtaken by newer stock, or refurbished units that cannot be brought fully up to modern spec.

 Older, lower-specification stock, often not originally built as modern distribution warehousing. Typical characteristics include low eaves (<8m), limited yard depth, poor EPC ratings (E or below), and constrained dock provision. Typically candidates for comprehensive refurbishment or redevelopment.

Whole or part-units being actively marketed for sub-lease or assignment by an existing occupier, rather than being offered directly by the landlord. DTRE includes actively-marketed grey space within its total supply schedule, as it represents genuine competition for occupier requirements.

DTRE Big Box Logistics
Report - H1 2026

DTRE Big Box Logistics Report - H1 2026

Laboratory and midtech take-up across the Golden Triangle reached 200,600 sq ft in the opening quarter of 2026, up 131% year on year. This uplift was largely driven by activity in Cambridge, with the defence sector playing a key role, including one occupier taking over 80,000 sq ft of midtech space at Bourn Quarter, alongside a further 70,000 sq ft currently under offer to a confidential drone detection company. 

Outside of Cambridge, the Ellison Institute expanded further at The Oxford Science Park, taking a 29,000 sq ft assignment from Novo Nordisk at the Iversen Building. AbbVie signed for over 12,000 sq ft at 5510 ARC Oxford, while Flagship Pioneering took approximately 3,500 sq ft space within LBIC’s offering at Apex, in King’s Cross, London. 

London’s market continues to be driven by smaller deals, with a flurry of sub-3,000 sq ft lettings at the likes of Reef Group and Blackrock’s Apex and British Land’s 20 Triton Street, but there are a number of larger deals in the pipeline. They include 35,000 sq ft of fitted lab space under offer at British Land’s 1 Triton Square, and over 25,000 sq ft under offer at Kadans’ MAYDE. Availability across London is now 556,800 sq ft, 13% down on the end of last year. In Oxford, 549,300 sq ft of fitted and built space was available, with the likes of Trinity by Breakthrough bringing 214,000 sq ft to market this quarter. Across Cambridge, over 614,400 sq ft of space remained available, following the completion of the Sidney Sussex building (55,500 sq ft) at Chesterford Research Park, and Longfellow’s CamLIFE 1 and 2 (c.130,000 sq ft). 

Looking ahead to Q2, further space is set to come forward in Cambridge, with Kadans’ Merlin Place (139,000 sq ft) and Breakthrough’s Vitrum (166,000 sq ft) due to complete. In London, Kadans’ VERSA (51,600 sq ft) is also scheduled for delivery, while Co:Labs at Harwell Science and Innovation Campus in Oxford (120,000 sq ft) is expected to complete in Q3. 

DTRE were tracking 1.1 million sq ft of active named demand across the Golden Triangle by the close of Q1, with 49% focused on Cambridge, including two requirements totalling 250,000 sq ft, driven by an increase in stay vs go exercises. Whilst demand in London remained skewed towards smaller occupiers, with 43% of requirements by count seeking space under 5,000 sq ft, there has been a noticeable shift towards larger requirements. The number of occupiers searching for 10,000 to 30,000 sq ft has increased by 75% since the close of 2025, with three new larger requirements entering the market. Overall, named active demand across the Golden Triangle has increased by 22% year on year. 

Looking at the funding landscape, £712 million has been raised across the Golden Triangle, down 31% compared with the £1 billion recorded at the close of Q1 2025. Following a particularly strong funding year in 2025, this represents a notable slowdown, with Oxford-headquartered companies facing pronounced challenges, raising just £64 million. Despite this softer start, we remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the remainder of the year, with expectations that capital deployed in 2025 will begin to translate into leasing activity.

Science & Technology Report: Golden Triangle - Q1 2026

5 Things You Need to Know About Big Box Logistics in Q1 2026

Key Market Indicators You Need To Know About Big Box Logistics in Q1'2026

The UK’s Big Box logistics market has carried its 2025 momentum into the new year. Q1’26 saw 7.5 million sq ft transacted across 31 deals, running 19% ahead of the pre-Covid quarterly average (2007–19) and representing the strongest start to a year since 2022.

Logistics operators were the most active occupier group in Q1, accounting for 15 of the 31 transactions and reflecting continued investment in distribution networks. The standout deal saw Farmfoods commit to 803,000 sq ft at Logicor Park Daventry on a 25-year lease, whilst DHL took an assignment of 515,000 sq ft at Derby Commercial Park and Maersk secured 411,000 sq ft in Doncaster. Parcel and last-mile operators also featured prominently, with DPD pre-letting 386,000 sq ft at i54 in Wolverhampton and Evri taking 265,000 sq ft at Arrow, Barnsley.

Retailers were the second most active sector (seven deals), led by Morrisons’ 235,000 sq ft lease at Snodland in Kent and EDA Cloud’s 324,000 sq ft letting at Citadel, Bilston. The continued presence of Chinese e-commerce platforms was also notable, with a 450,000 sq ft freehold D&B acquisition at Dove Valley Park in Derby. Manufacturing activity, whilst more muted than 2025’s record year, included Onboard Corrugated’s 297,000 sq ft letting at Vola Bilston.

Geographically, the West Midlands and East Midlands dominated activity, together accounting for 19 of the 31 deals, reaffirming the Golden Triangle’s grip on UK logistics. Yorkshire and the Humber contributed six transactions, whilst the South East and London accounted for three deals, including Prologis’ DC1 Brooklands letting at £20 per sq ft. Wales also saw improved activity with Amazon in Cardiff and Oak Group in Newport.

The DTRE Big Box Vacancy Rate has edged back above 7% following the return of ‘second-hand’ space to market, with 61 million sq ft of vacant units now available across the UK. Whilst the headline rate had fallen to 6.9% by end-2025, the first time below 7% in over two years, the release of stock back onto the market has reversed that progress in the short-term. However, the amount of new product coming to the market via speculative development remains subdued, with just under 6 million sq ft due to reach practical completion over the next 12 months, significantly below the long-term rolling four-quarter average of 10.9 million sq ft. This supply-side constraint should place renewed downward pressure on vacancy through the second half of the year, and particularly on Grade A supply, which has seen a fall of 6% over the last 12 months, with Grade A vacancy now standing at just 2.9% and expected to fall further.

Speculative Development Completions Each Quarter by Size Band

As a result, the rental polarisation witnessed in 2025 will continue to entrench. Grade A rents grew 6.5% in 2025, and we expect incentives for new, energy-efficient product to tighten further as supply diminishes. In contrast, secondary stock, of which there are 178 units totalling 37.2 million sq ft, faces mounting competition from refurbished and new-build alternatives, with average headline growth for ‘second-hand’ product of just 1.4% in 2025 and expect this divergence to widen through 2026.

The story is even more stark in the world of XXL Big Box (units of 300,000 sq ft plus), particularly for new-build units between 300-400,000 sq ft, where supply has shrunk by 38% in the last 18 months. There’s only one unit of this size coming online in next 12 months and coupled with the new elevated construction costs, expect to see a reaction from landlords in terms of rental tone.

Industrial and logistics investment volumes totalled £913 million in Q1’26 across 24 completed transactions. Whilst this represents a quieter start to the year relative to Q4’25’s £3.8 billion surge, it is consistent with the seasonal pattern of recent years where capital deployment has been weighted toward the second half.

The largest transaction saw EQT Exeter acquire ‘Project Dawn’, a portfolio of four single-let assets totalling 909,000 sq ft from Prologis for £130 million at a NIY of 5.64%. DWS also completed its funding of a new Tesco unit (489,000 sq ft) at Mountpark Hinckley for £105 million at 5.30% NIY, demonstrating continued institutional appetite for long-income, prime logistics assets. The third largest deal saw Marchmont and Invesco acquire the ‘Marlin’ multi-let portfolio from Indurent for £101 million at 7.11%. DTRE advised on all three.

Multi-let and urban logistics assets attracted significant activity, accounting for the majority of Q1 transactions by number. The Merlin Centre in High Wycombe traded at £53 million (4.85% NIY), whilst LOC8 in Maidstone sold for £44 million (4.84%), and Crest Distribution Park in High Wycombe at £39 million (4.96%). These pricing levels confirm that well-located, multi-let estates with reversionary potential continue to command sub-5% yields.

Buyer preference still leans toward multi-let, where deeper and wider buyer pools offer greater liquidity. Core and core-plus single-let pricing is expected to remain resilient given the lack of available stock, a tight development pipeline and limited exposure to debt markets, with LGPS pools and insurance capital increasingly active. Secondary pricing, however, faces headwinds from widening swap rates, exit yield concerns, elevated gilt yields and rising capex demands.

The broader macro backdrop remains noisy. Conflict in the Middle East has injected fresh uncertainty into global energy markets, supply chains and investor sentiment, whilst tariff tensions haven’t completely gone away either. In that context, transaction volumes in the near-term could be subdued as some capital adopts a ‘wait and see’ posture, and we would not be surprised to see deal activity once again back-loaded into Q4 as decisions are deferred.

Whilst we acknowledge those headwinds, DTRE’s view is that the fundamental investment case for UK Big Box logistics has not changed. If anything, it has strengthened. We estimate that there’s currently £2.5bn of big box logistics assets ‘in-train’, despite the wider macro story. This only further underlines the fact that in an increasingly uncertain world, the sector offers something relatively straightforward. Long, secure income, let to strong covenants, underpinned by structural demand that is not going away. The development pipeline is constrained, vacancy is manageable and rental growth for the best product continues. Therefore, we expect the weight of capital targeting logistics to reassert itself through the second half of the year.

DTRE Big Box Logistics
Report - Q1 2026

DTRE Big Box Logistics Report - Q1 2026

Is this the evolution of operational emissions benchmarking, or do we ask too much of the carbon benchmarking tool?

CRREM has announced the end of the tool era and the beginning of a new, pathways-only age. It claims that market maturity has put its Risk Assessment Tool out of a job, but can any benchmark truly account for the complexities of the global energy market?

In some cases, the CRREM benchmarking tool may have been doing more damage than good. With its one-size-fits-all approach, it risks ignoring the many and very important nuances present across energy markets and the real estate industry at large. 

Its retirement announcement has coincided with renewed conflict in the Middle East, serving only to make starker the challenges such tools face. This latest energy crisis has forced a global re-evaluation of procurement strategies – the sort of market shock that static tools will always struggle to navigate.

Find out more, including our suggestions for the benchmark of the future, in our full report: 

CRREM: Chapter II 

Across the Golden Triangle, lab and midtech take-up reached 851,800 sq ft in 2025, representing a 152% year-on-year increase, more than double the five-year average of 411,900 sq ft. It’s important to note that this figure does include the Ellison Institute taking the entirety of the Daubeny Project (450,000 sq ft) in its acquisition of the west of The Oxford Science Park. Towards the close of the year, we saw a clear shift in viewing activity, with conversations that had previously been slow starting to gain momentum. Occupier sentiment became notably more positive, potentially driven by improving conditions in the funding environment, alongside macro-economic uncertainty becoming, in many ways, predictably unpredictable. This momentum has continued into 2026, leaving us cautiously optimistic for a more positive year ahead.

2025 was also the year that AI firmly moved to the forefront of discussions, particularly in the second half of the year. Demand and fundraising from this sector increased significantly, whether through life science companies embedding AI more deeply into their research processes, or AI-led businesses directly seeking lab or office accommodation. Of UK fundraising in 2025, 35% was dedicated towards AI. In London in particular, 53% of science and biotech investment went to AI-led businesses. With this, power availability has become more critical than ever, often the key factor of any requirement.

Fundraising across the UK was encouraging in 2025, reaching £4.8 billion, up 48% year-on-year, with 42% of this occurring in London. Whilst it very much feels as though the funding taps are beginning to open; fundraising is still difficult. Throughout 2025, we saw an increase in requirements coming to market, only for real estate searches to be pushed out and delayed as funding failed to materialise in the expected timeframe.

Hereby, whilst there is a weight of capital raised that needs to be deployed,  there remains a degree of friction in the market, both in recruitment and real estate expansion.

London take-up reached 138,000 sq ft in 2025, more than 3.5 times the total sq ft transacted the year prior and 63% above the five-year average take-up of 84,600 sq ft. Whilst these figures are no doubt positive, it is important to recognise that 51% of this take-up was driven by LifeArc signing for the entirety of Ashby Capital and Native Land’s KOVA KX at 105 Judd Street (70,600 sq ft).

Looking specifically at the final quarter of the year, 5,900 sq ft of lab space was let across the capital. This included Valink Therapeutics’ expansion at Imperial’s Translation and Innovation Hub (I-HUB) in White City, where the company now occupies over 3,900 sq ft.

Headline rents in London have remained stable at £125.00 per sq ft, last achieved at Kadans’ Mayde at Tileyard Quarter in 2024. With a significant volume of stock completing in 2025 across schemes such as Apex, Tribeca, The Refinery at Arc’s West London Campus, Pioneer’s Victoria House and British Land’s One Triton Square, occupiers have genuine choice for the first time in the London lab market. This has driven a tenant-led market and, in turn, a lag in rental growth.

At the close of Q4 2025, 637,000 sq ft of lab space was available, pushing the vacancy rate to 31%, up from 15% at the close of 2024. A further 558,100 sq ft is scheduled for delivery in 2026, of which  87% (484,100 sq ft) remains available at the close of 2025.

Despite the current level of availability in the market, there is key interest across the likes of Kadans’ Mayde, British Land’s One Triton Square, and the remaining space at Apex Tribeca, leading us to anticipate an uptick in net absorption. 

By year-end, we were tracking 801,400 sq ft of named demand, with 280,000 sq ft currently active. Whilst this remains inadequate relative to supply, active demand is up 13% year-on-year, with total demand almost doubling. This highlights the increasing interest and growth in the London lab market. Of active demand, 52% by count was for space under 5,000 sq ft, 14% for 5,000 to 10,000 sq ft, 24% for 10,000 to 30,000 sq ft, and 10% for space over 30,000 sq ft. This is reflective of the nascency of the London market, where the majority of companies remain early-stage spinouts.

From a venture capital perspective, science and biotech firms headquartered in London raised £2 billion throughout 2025, representing a record level of investment driven by Isomorphic Labs’ $600 million raised at the beginning of the year. Of this, 33% was early-stage venture capital, with a further 28% allocated to later-stage VC.

Take-up in Cambridge during 2025 lagged its Golden Triangle counterparts, with 96,100 sq ft of lab and midtech space transacted. This sat below the five-year average of 139,000 sq ft and was 1.2% down on 2024. Despite this, a further 60,800 sq ft was under offer at year end, with an additional 121,500 sq ft going under offer in early 2026.

In Q4, Nxera Pharma took 13,100 sq ft at the Cori Building on BioMed Realty’s Granta Park, while Tagomics and Trimtech Therapeutics each took 5,300 sq ft suites at Building 960 on Babraham Research Campus. The largest transaction across the Cambridge lab market in 2025 was at Abstract’s South Cambridge Science Centre, where Frontier IP signed for 18,000 sq ft in Q2.

Vacancy across Cambridge rose to 13%, almost double the level recorded at the close of 2024. This increase was driven by the delivery of speculative laboratory buildings throughout 2025, including Mission Street’s The Press Phase 2 (64,400 sq ft), Abstract’s South Cambridge Science Centre (138,000 sq ft), and Longfellow’s CamLIFE 3 (36,800 sq ft). Of the new stock delivered during the year, the only letting achieved was at the South Cambridge Science Centre.

In addition to current supply, further completions are scheduled for 2026.  With the likes of CamLIFE 1 and 2 (129,500 sq ft), and the Sidney Sussex Building at Chesterford Research Park (55,600 sq ft), already completing at the start of the year, with Kadans’ Merlin Place (135,000 sq ft), and Breakthrough Properties’ Vitrum at St John’s Innovation Park (205,000 sq ft) due to complete in Q2.

Active demand stood at 377,500 sq ft at year end, with total named demand increasing to 703,000 sq ft. Active demand was up 57% year-on-year, driven by larger requirements reactivating or coming to market. Cambridge’s relative market maturity is reflected in the composition of demand, with 63% of active requirements seeking space between 10,000 and 30,000 sq ft, and a further 19% for space over 50,000 sq ft.

In the same vein, Cambridge-based companies raised £755 million of funding over the year, with 71% allocated to later-stage businesses. The average size of raise in Cambridge was also higher than in Oxford or London, at £8.4 million, compared with £7.2 million and £5.2 million respectively. Again reflecting Cambridge’s market maturity in comparison to its Golden Triangle counterparts.

Take-up of laboratory and midtech accommodation in Oxford reached a record 615,800 sq ft, driven primarily by the Ellison Institute’s acquisition of The Daubeny Project at The Oxford Science Park. This transaction alone accounted for 450,000 sq ft of take-up, included in the Institute’s purchase of the western part of the park.

The Ellison Institute was also responsible for further activity throughout 2025, including the letting of 25,500 sq ft at the Iversen Building in Q1.

Beyond The Oxford Science Park, Kadans saw T-Cypher and Ox Devices take 11,800 sq ft at Barton House and the entirety of Monarch House (10,200 sq ft) respectively in Q4, following earlier activity in the year at Sovereign House and the Science Quadrant. In the city centre, Mission Street’s Inventa welcomed Orbit Discovery and Oxford Cancer Analytics that took 8,300 sq ft and 2,400 sq ft respectively of fully fitted laboratory space.

The headline rent of £85.50 per sq ft was achieved at The Oxford Science Park in Q1 2025, marking an increase on the previous market high of £82.50 per sq ft. Oxford continued to record the lowest availability across the Golden Triangle, with 385,100 sq ft of lab and midtech space available. The completion of Phase 1 at Stanhope’s Oxford North delivered two laboratory buildings alongside the Red Hall office building, bringing a combined 115,000 sq ft of lab space to the market, all of which currently remains available. In addition, the completion of Lumen House at Harwell in Q4 added a further 17,000 sq ft to supply.

Looking ahead to 2026, the market will see the completion of Breakthrough Properties’ Trinity House (214,000 sq ft), alongside Quad Three and Co:Labs at ARC’s Harwell, delivering 75,000 sq ft and 120,000 sq ft respectively.

Total demand reached 826,000 sq ft by year end, of which 391,000 sq ft was active. By number of active requirements, the majority of demand was for space between 10,000 and 30,000 sq ft, accounting for 41%. This was followed by demand for space under 5,000 sq ft at 24%, 12% for 5,000 to 10,000 sq ft, and 24% for space over 30,000 sq ft.

From a venture capital perspective, Oxford-based science and biotech firms raised £434 million in 2025. Whilst this remains low relative to Cambridge and London, it still represents a year-on-year increase of 4%. Funding was weighted towards later-stage venture capital, which accounted for 34% of total investment, with early-stage VC representing just 13%.

Science & Technology Report: 
Golden Triangle - Q4 2025

Science & Technology Report: Golden Triangle - Q4 2025

5 Things You Need to Know About Big Box Logistics in Q4 2025

Key Market Indicators You Need To Know in Q4 2025

The UK’s Big Box Logistics market demonstrated notable resilience throughout 2025 and despite a year dominated by geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs, persistent inflationary pressures and a delayed UK Budget, the sector delivered its best year of take-up since Covid ended, totaling just shy of 31 million sq ft. While volatility remained the prevailing backdrop, occupier demand strengthened as the year progressed, with c.15 million sq ft of deals in the second half of the year, the best H2 since 2022 and confirming the return of large-scale logistics leasing.


Take-up of units over 100,000 sq ft totalled 30.9 million sq ft in 2025, running 7% ahead of 2024 and 7% above the five-year pre-Covid average (2015–2019). This reflects the depth of structural demand from third-party logistics providers, retailers, particularly the grocers and a resurgent manufacturing sector. Momentum was sustained into Q4, with a further 8.5 million sq ft currently under offer, providing a strong pipeline of nearterm activity heading into 2026.

For the first time ever in DTRE’s DXTRE database, manufacturers were the dominant occupier group, accounting for 40 separate transactions and 31% of the total market, the most transactions by manufacturers in a single year on record and 67% up on the average number of deals manufacturers typically account for in each year since 2007. The increased presence by the manufacturing sector reflects reshoring trends, supply-chain resilience initiatives and increased government spending, particularly in defence-related sectors. The standout transaction of the year saw Agratas acquire a site in Somerset to develop a 2.5 million sq ft gigafactory, representing one of the largest manufacturing commitments seen in the UK market of late.

Retailers remain active, particularly the grocers who continue to consolidate distribution networks, invest in automation and drive operational efficiencies. Retail-led demand was reinforced by Marks & Spencer’s 1.3 million sq ft pre-let at Prologis’ DIRFT, underlining the scale and long-term commitment from the major national retailers, with Tesco (London Gateway), Waitrose (Mountpark Bristol 360) and Iceland (Ergo Oldham 369) all active in 2025.

Importantly, confidence was not confined solely to design and build and pre-letting activity. Speculative space also saw improved leasing traction, with 9.9 million sq ft (43 deals) up 38% year-on-year. This demand for new, speculative built product was highlighted by Panattoni’s PP885 letting to GXO in Avonmouth, and despite the preference from occupiers for new/Grade A units, there remains a place for ‘second-hand’ assets, as demonstrated by the fact that there was c.13m sq ft of take-up of ‘second-hand’ units, 21% up on 2024’s total and the second-best year of take-up for ‘second-hand’ units since 2007 (exc Covid years 2020/21).

Fig 2. Speculative Development Outlook is Subdued

As a result of this improved leasing velocity, the DTRE Big Box Vacancy Rate edged down from 7.4% to 6.9% through the year, marking the first sustained decline in vacancy for over two years. This improvement has occurred despite there still being 58.9 million sq ft of vacant Big Box space currently available across the UK. Of all the available stock, approximately 63% is ‘second-hand’, but quality continues to drive decision-making, with occupiers increasingly focused on operational efficiency, energy performance and long-term  sustainability credentials, hence why demand last year was focused on Grade A/New build/D&B (design and build) product which accounted for 58% of take-up.

Geographically, the Midlands continued to dominate activity (38% of take-up), reaffirming its status as the UK’s logistics heartland. However, there were early signs of improving momentum in both the South East and London towards the end of the year, with 4m sq ft of deals, the best return since 2022. While affordability constraints have weighed on London take-up over the past two years, easing rental pressures may begin to unlock pent-up demand in 2026, albeit on the other-hand business rates pressures could extent that standoff.

Supply-side discipline has been a defining feature of the market in 2025. Developers, constrained by historic land prices and flatlining rental growth and exit yields have largely stepped back from speculative  development, and as a result, the speculative development pipeline remains subdued heading into 2026.

There is now just under 6 million sq ft of new speculative space due to practical completion over the next 12 months, well below the long-term rolling four-quarter average of approximately 10.9 million sq ft. This slowdown is enabling the market to absorb the post-pandemic wave of new supply and is expected to place downward pressure on vacancy through 2026, assuming occupier demand remains broadly in line with current expectations.

Moving through 2026, expect rental polarisation to become increasingly entrenched with newer EPC A / BREEAM ‘Excellent’ & ‘Outstanding’ buildings commanding rental premiums. The average achieved headline rents for Grade A grew 6.5% in 2025, reflecting strong occupier preference for modern, energy-efficient stock and incentives should start to tighten for this type of product as we move through the year.

In contrast, secondary assets, of which there are currently 178 units, totaling 37.2 m sq ft across the UK, are  facing mounting competition, as well capex requirements and growing obsolescence risk. Despite strong leasing volumes for second-hand space, rents flatlined in 2024, with average headline growth of just 1.4% in 2025.

Despite ongoing macroeconomic noise, the UK’s industrial and logistics capital markets gained momentum as 2025 progressed. The year proved to be one of two distinct halves, with early caution giving way to improving confidence later on. Q4 2025 alone saw £3.8 billion transacted, making it the strongest quarter since Q1 2022, when base rates were still at 0.5%. Over the entirety of 2025, £8.9bn was transacted across the entire industrial and logistics landscape. However, at just shy of £2.5bn transacted, it was the lowest volume of single-let (exc portfolios) deals done in over 10 years.



Activity was increasingly concentrated, with fewer deals but significantly larger ticket sizes. Seven transactions of approximately £200 million or more accounted for 82% of Q4 volumes, as portfolio and platform acquisitions dominated over single-asset transactions. This reflects both investor preference for scale and the limited availability of prime, institutionally acceptable stock at the prices both vendors and purchasers were willing to trade at.


Fig 3. Rolling 4 Quarter Investment Volumes

The biggest deal of the year occurred in Q4, when Tritax Big Box REIT acquired c.£1.04bn of assets from Blackstone, with Crosstree also acquiring 12 estates from BlackRock (BAPF) for c.£373m in the same month. These deals demonstrating the renewed momentum and liquidity in the capital markets towards the end of the year. The biggest single-let deal of Q4 saw Leftfield acquire Mountpark 360 in Bristol which was recently let to Waitrose, for £55.5m/5.53%, slightly ahead of quote.

Moving through this year, whilst there’ll be no return to 2021-style pricing, alignment is already improving after nearly three years of stand-off. With debt markets showing increased liquidity for logistics assets and borrowing costs easing, with a further 50-75 bps of rate cuts expected this year, investor confidence has strengthened. In addition, the anticipated re-organisation of the Local Government Pension Schemes (LGPS) could facilitate increased allocations to logistics from core capital during 2026, which could push down on prime yields.

It would be remiss to not mention that there remain one or two potential speed bumps in the road. Firstly, “amend and extend” fatigue, which is becoming increasingly apparent across real estate, although it remains unclear whether this will translate into meaningful distress within logistics specifically, or remain contained in the other sectors. And secondly, geopolitics, which remains the principal wildcard.

However, if the prevailing mindset over recent years has been “survive ‘til ’25”, then 2026 increasingly looks like a year where the focus shifts toward deploying capital rather than simply preserving it.

Fig 4. Interest Rates Will Fall to 3.00% by End ’26

DTRE Big Box Logistics
Report - Q4 2025

DTRE Big Box Logistics Report - Q4 2025

While announcements from Merck, AstraZeneca, Lilly, Sanofi and GSK have temporarily dampened sentiment around the UK’s science and technology market, they don’t reflect a structural retreat from the UK. These firms remain committed to their existing R&D bases here, and in many cases are simply re-sequencing capital expenditure amid NHS pricing uncertainty and impending patent cliffs for block buster drugs.

We’re undoubtedly in a period of recalibration rather than decline. Lab take up across the Golden Triangle has increased by 21% year-on-year, driven by a 493% increase in London deals and largely reflecting market caution in Oxford and Cambridge rather than a fall in named active occupier demand, which has increased quarter-on-quarter by 16% to 2 million sq ft.

Whilst a spate of new buildings reaching practical completion this year has skewed the supply side, increasing availability by 83% year-on-year to 1.3 million sq ft, this is still behind the total demand across the Golden Triangle.

The funding environment paints a bright picture with over £2.3 billion raised throughout the Golden Triangle in the year to date. This is 33% ahead of the previous year’s raises and demonstrates there is still capital appetite for early and later stage biotech and life science companies, albeit the raises are taking longer to close.

The underlying fundamentals of the sector in the UK of world-class universities, access to talent, a robust funding universe and the continuing convergence between tech and science in London, Oxford and Cambridge remain powerful demand drivers.

From a property market perspective, we’re seeing a flight to quality. Well-located, purpose-built lab spaces continue to attract stronger occupier attention, while secondary assets in terms of either location or specification face longer Leasing voids. There are many positives to focus on, if we can look through the noise.

At the time of printing the Ellison Institute announced its £890m deal with The Oxford Science Park and JV partner GIC to acquire approximately 46 acres of the park, including the 450,000 sq ft Daubeny Project that is under construction. This not only marks a huge vote of confidence in the UK’s science and technology sector with the largest capital markets deal for approximately 5 years, but also underscores the importance of looking through the noise. Only time will tell, but I am hopeful that we have now passed the nadir and that the tailwinds highlighted in this report will begin to generate more positive news stories.

Lab and midtech take-up in London reached an impressive 132,000 sq ft by the close of Q3 2025, 493% up on the 22,300 sq ft of take up in the same period last year. Key deals included OriBiotech and Plasmidsaurus securing space at Kadans’ Mayde, 5–10 Brandon Road, alongside additional take-up at LBIC, Apex by BIND Research, and Twig Bio. A further 15,000 sq ft was under offer at the end of September, with more transactions anticipated before the end of the year at Mayde and Imperial’s Victoria Industrial Estate.

London’s Knowledge Quarter continued to lead activity, accounting for 59% of Q3 take-up and 79% of year-to-date transactions. Demand followed a similar trend with 67% of active requirements specifying a preference for space within the Knowledge Quarter. Across London, active demand totals 197,200 sq ft, with a further 447,500 sq ft either on hold or expected to activate within the next 6 to 12 months.

The quarter also saw further floors reach practical completion at Pioneer’s Victoria House, as well as 1 Triton Square delivering 313,000 sq ft of lab enabled office space, with 43,500 sq ft of fitted labs, bringing total available built lab space in London to 587,200 sq ft. Notable vacancies remain at purpose-built lab schemes including ARC’s The Refinery, Kadans’ Mayde, and Reef and Blackrock’s Apex, Tribeca, where Eli Lilly recently withdrew from its committed space.

London’s science sector continues to outperform its Golden Triangle peers in capital raising, with over £1.5 billion secured to date in 2025, the strongest year on record. The capital accounts for 65% of all Golden Triangle fundraising and consists of 122 separate raises, double the combined total of Oxford and Cambridge. Of capital raised, 48% was for early-stage rounds (seed, Series A-B), with later stage VC funding (Series C-D) making up the next largest percentage at 22%.

Lab and midtech take-up in Cambridge reached 63,600 sq ft by the end of September, marking a 33% decline year-on-year. Despite this slowdown, an additional 98,200 sq ft was under offer at the end of Q3, including 36,600 sq ft at Peterhouse College’s Q-Arc, Saxon Way. Should these transactions complete before year-end, total take-up will exceed Cambridge’s five-year annual average of 139,000 sq ft by approximately 16%.

Active demand remains robust, standing at 344,500 sq ft, with a further 350,000 sq ft of demand currently on hold or anticipated to come live within the next 6 to 12 months.

On the supply side, new lab completions include Longfellow’s CamLife 3 and Brydell’s First Step by Journey, together adding 54,800 sq ft to the market. These join Abstract’s best-in-class South Cambridge Science Centre with approximately 120,000 sq ft available following its deal with Frontier IP, Mission Street’s Phase 2 of The Press with 64,400 sq ft available, and BioMed’s 1 Granta Park, which retains around 50,000 sq ft of availability despite 28,000 sq ft of office space being currently under offer to Gilead.

Venture capital activity continues to strengthen with life science and biotech firms across Cambridge raising £529 million to the end of Q3, a 6% increase year-on-year. Notably, 85% of this funding was secured through later-stage venture capital (Series C and beyond), highlighting the more mature status of the Cambridge market.

By the end of Q3 2025, Oxford recorded 85,100 sq ft of lab and midtech take-up. Notable transactions included Salience Labs occupying 6,700 sq ft of dry lab space at 100 Park Drive and Inify taking 11,600 sq ft of midtech space at Nebula, both at MEPC’s Milton Park. While 26,600 sq ft remained under offer at quarter-end, take-up was set to fall short of the five-year annual average (200,300 sq ft), until the landmark announcement in October that the Ellison Institute will occupy the 450,000 sq ft Daubeny Project at The Oxford Science Park. This deal will propel annual take-up to 167% above the five-year average, marking a record year for Oxford and helping to reaffirm investor confidence in the UK’s science and technology ecosystem.

Active demand across Oxford held steady at 276,000 sq ft, with a further 383,200 sq ft in the pipeline. Supply remains the tightest within the Golden Triangle here, with 374,600 sq ft of completed lab space available. Despite this, it is up from 282,900 sq ft last quarter, due to Oxford North Phase 1 reaching practical completion, delivering c.106,000 sq ft of lab space across 1 & 2 Fallaize Street, alongside office and amenity space at The Red Hall. Looking ahead, the key completion of Breakthrough Properties’ Trinity House (214,000 sq ft) is expected to further bolster lab stock in Q4.

Funding activity in Oxford remains subdued relative to London and Cambridge, with £290 million raised by the end of Q3, moving marginally ahead of the £273 million achieved during the same period last year. Of this, 63% was private equity funding, 33% was allocated to later-stage VC and just 4% was seed funding.

Science & Technology Report:
Golden Triangle - Q2 2025

Science & Technology Report: Golden Triangle - Q3 2025

Key Market Indicators You Need To Know in Q3 2025

From this quarter, we’re benchmarking the UK against key global peers. The new feature will highlight take-up, vacancy and investment trends worldwide, showing how the UK compares and where opportunities are emerging. As capital and occupier demand shifts and refocuses globally, this perspective will give sharper insight into the UK’s position in the international market.

The Big Box market belied the perceived macroeconomic doom and gloom in Q3, with take-up rallying to its second-highest quarterly total in the past two years. There was 8.3 million sq ft transacted across 31 separate deals in the quarter, which is 11% ahead of the quarterly average seen since the end of 2022. This pushes year-to-date activity to nearly 22 million sq ft, sitting 9% above the same period last year and 7.5% ahead of the pre-Covid 10-year average (Q1–Q3).

Retailers remained the dominant occupier group, continuing to optimise supply chains and promote network efficiencies. However, manufacturers also made a strong return, taking their largest share of space since 2022,
a signal that domestic consumption and production as well as supply chain consolidation remain key themes. 

Indurent’s letting of its Omega 420 scheme in Warrington to Regency Glass was the standout manufacturing deal of the quarter, but on the whole there were 11 separate deals to manufacturers of various types, and that’s the second-best quarter in the last 5 years. The 1.3m sq ft pre-let by M&S at Prologis’ DIRFT was the biggest deal of the quarter, as well as the year, to date.

Geographically, the Midlands reaffirmed its status as the UK’s logistics heartland, accounting for nearly half of all take-up by volume (47%) and 13 of the 31 deals recorded. The South East and London saw renewed momentum with 6 deals, it’s best quarter since Q2’22 and capped by the InPost deal in London, the first Big Box transaction over 100,000 sq ft in the capital since late 2023. 


Interestingly Q3 also saw the return of the ‘XXL shed’. There were 8 separate lettings of 300,000 sq ft plus in Q3, that’s more than in any other quarter in the last 3 years and as a result there’s now just 15 new/spec built units available between 300-400,000 sq ft in the UK, that’s a fall of 35% this year and there are currently zero units of this size under construction now Logicor’s Bolt 330 in Manchester has reached completion.

In terms of the overall supply and vacancy picture, the DTRE Big Box Vacancy Rate has remained flat over the last three months at 7.4% and there is currently 60.3 million sq ft of vacant units across the UK, with the Midlands accounting for 41% of that total. The majority of the currently available supply (64%) is second-hand with 21.9 m sq ft of vacant ‘new spec built’ units on the market, which is a fall of close to 3% over the quarter. 


There’s now just shy of 6m sq ft of new/spec built product due to p/c over the next 12 months, with the four quarter rolling total averaging c.10.9 million sq ft over the last 10 years, this demonstrates a considerable slowdown in the Big Box development market. Given the relatively meagre amount of new supply coming on-stream then we expect to see a move down in the vacancy rate by the end of this year and into 2026.

Whilst the macro-economic backdrop, and later than anticipated budget could eat into business sentiment in Q4, there is an expectation of continued occupier activity in the Big Box market, particularly given the c.10million sq ft of deals currently under offer. Combine this with the number of large requirements circulating from retailers and defence manufacturers in-particular and a limited development pipeline, the market is well-positioned for a strong finish to the year.

Again despite the macro noise, the UK logistics investment market held firm in Q3, with £1.75 billion transacted, broadly in line with the three-year quarterly average. In a continuation of what we’ve seen over the last six to nine months, activity was underpinned by deals at either end of the pricing barbell, with continued appetite for big ticket ‘Big Box’ portfolios and whole logistics parks of c.£80m plus, as well as smaller ‘value-add’ deals that provide opportunity to bolt-on assets to existing aggregation strategies and drive returns through active asset management.

The standout transaction of Q3 was Blackstone’s £489 million take-private of Warehouse REIT, reaffirming their confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the sector. On the single-asset front, Pontegadea’s purchase of an Amazon facility just outside of Liverpool for £80m/5.00% marked the largest individual deal of the quarter.


Fig 3. Rolling 4 Quarter Investment Volumes

Yields held steady through the quarter from a valuation perspective (4.82% distribution warehouse NIY from MSCI in July to 4.84% NIY in Aug), however, there remains a disconnect between vendors and purchasers when it comes to actual deals, with vendors unable or unwilling to sell at below valuation and purchasers unwilling to be seen to be paying ahead of the perceived ‘market’ rate. With seemingly plenty of liquidity in the debt markets for logistics assets this has resulted in some portfolios being re-financed, rather than sold in the last quarter.

Looking ahead, the remainder of 2025 is likely to be shaped by macroeconomic headlines — particularly around the UK’s Budget in late November, any resulting gilt market sensitivity and the resultant knock-on effect to further rate cuts.

Yet positively, there remains significant capital waiting to access the sector. As has been the case for the last 18 months or so, the challenge lies not in demand or weight of money targeting the sector, but in bridging the gap between vendor and purchaser aspirations. However, with the anticipation of more ‘core’ capital entering the market from 2026, particularly given the re–organisation of the Local Government Pension Schemes (LGPS), we think that gap could be bridged before too long.