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Britain is rearming, and the private sector is moving fast. With the government committed to raising defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, the defence budget on course to top £73.5 billion by 2028/29, and companies like Anduril, who closed a $5 billion Series H raise in May at a $61 billion valuation, already committing to UK manufacturing, one question is starting to cut through: what kind of real estate will all these companies actually need?

The geopolitical order has shifted. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO’s new 5% of GDP aspiration agreed at The Hague in 2025, and a recalibrated transatlantic relationship have together triggered the most significant re-arming of Western nations in a generation. According to SIPRI, global defence spending hit $2.46 trillion in 2024, a real-terms increase of 7.4%. Defence News research found that defence technology startups raised a record $49.1 billion in 2025, almost double the prior year. In Europe alone, deal count for defence tech grew 67% year-on-year. Helsing, Europe’s leading defence AI company, is now in talks for a $1.2 billion round at an $18 billion valuation, a raise described by the Financial Times as oversubscribed multiple times.

The numbers are becoming names. Before 2026, the UK had no defence tech unicorns; within the first three months of this year it is on course to have three, with Tekever, UForce and Cambridge Aerospace all crossing or approaching the billion-dollar mark. The question of physical space is no longer academic. 

The nature of modern defence technology is important here. This is not the defence of old, with vast factories turning out armoured vehicles and munitions behind high-security perimeters. The new cohort, from drone manufacturers and autonomous systems developers to AI-enabled sensing businesses and advanced materials firms, clusters around talent, needs flexible space for both R&D and early-stage manufacturing scale-up, and cannot be accommodated by either a traditional factory or a Grade A science campus. The European Commission’s Defence Industry Transformation Roadmap, published in November 2025, puts it plainly: new defence companies “would benefit from agile and flexible approaches to manufacturing” and are held back by the need to commit to expensive, purpose-built facilities before contracts are secured. That is precisely the problem mid-tech solves.

This is why a conversation DTRE started 2.5 years ago feels more urgent than ever. Our ‘Rise of Mid-Tech’ report identified a structural gap in the UK’s commercial real estate market: between Grade A laboratory buildings commanding £65-£85 per sq ft in Cambridge and Oxford, and the vanilla industrial unit, there existed a largely unmet category. Mid-tech: an industrial shell with adequate height and loading, Cat A mezzanine office space covering at least 25% of the footprint, full-height sections for heavy equipment, and the amenity knowledge workers expect. Shell and core, at around £30 per sq ft. Not a compromise. A proposition.

That proposition has found a powerful new advocate in the defence technology sector. The specification requirements of a drone manufacturer scaling from prototype to production are almost identical to those of a life sciences business outgrowing its incubator. They need height. They need loading. They need to run power-hungry equipment. They cannot wait two years for a bespoke building to be delivered. The Financial Times has reported that weapons factories across Europe are already expanding at nearly three times the peacetime rate, with some 7 million square metres of new industrial development recorded since 2022. That is the direction of travel, and it is accelerating.

Location logic mirrors that of life sciences. The Golden Triangle remains the gravitational centre, but the real opportunity  sits on its edges. The fringes of Harwell, the Cambridge arc, the M40 corridor: these are precisely where developers can acquire land at a cost that makes a £30 per sq ft shell and core viable, while proximity to research institutions delivers the clustering effect these occupiers need. It is not a coincidence that Anduril and Tekever are already gravitating to exactly these locations.

The thesis has not changed. What has changed is the urgency and the breadth of the demand signal. Mid-tech is now being validated by a defence technology sector that is flush with capital, under political pressure to manufacture on home soil, and deeply unsuited to either a conventional office park or a full-specification science campus. Our own pipeline bears it out: since the start of this year we have put under offer or transacted on 173,000 sq ft of space to defence technology occupiers. Two years ago, those conversations barely existed.

Some developers have been slow to recognise the full range of occupiers that mid-tech can serve. Defence technology changes that calculus significantly. With IMARC Group projecting the UK’s aerospace and defence market will nearly double from $28.7 billion in 2024 to $58.3 billion by 2033, the pipeline of companies requiring exactly this kind of space, industrial in structure, intelligent in finish, located within reach of the country’s key research clusters, is only going to grow. The goal is open. It has been open for 2.5 years. Developers just need to take the shot.

The New War Room: How the Defence Tech Boom Is Making the Case for Mid-Tech Real Estate

In the face of regular market shocks, the industrial and logistics sector across the North West has proven to be
remarkably resilient. 

Despite fluctuating macroeconomic indicators, occupier demand has remained steadfast – and in many cases, grown stronger. In a market defined by its manufacturing roots, robust e-commerce expansion, and strategic transport network, this comes as little surprise.

This year, DTRE data shows that total Big Box take-up across the North West has reached 2.9 million sq ft, a 21% increase on the full year of 2024. Investment volumes have also held firm at £1.35bn an 8% uplift – reaffirming investor confidence in the market’s long-term
fundamentals.

One of the defining trends of 2025 in the North West has been the relentless upward pressure on rents. Each new deal has seemed to set a fresh benchmark, underscoring both scarcity of quality space and enduring appetite from occupiers seeking quality, well-located assets.

The headline deal at Trafford150, Trafford Park – achieving £10.90 per sq. ft. – was the latest record set, up from a high watermark of £10.25 earlier in the year. This reflects not just inflationary growth but also growing polarisation between prime stock and secondary assets.

Looking ahead, supply constraints will continue to define the market. Across the North West, only five big box buildings are
currently under construction, with all set to complete by mid-2026. 

A key example of the region’s resilience is Indurent 420 in Warrington – a 420,000 sq. ft. Grade A logistics unit recently taken by Regency Glass. Developed by Indurent and advised by DTRE, the unit achieved BREEAM ‘Excellent’ certification, offering high-spec and ‘Best in Class’ design.

The transaction was the region’s largest single-site lease in 2025 and largest manufacturing deal across the whole of the UK in Q3 2025. Regency Glass’s decision to relocate from older facilities into a purpose-built distribution hub underlines a clear flight to quality among occupiers and reflects growing demand for better quality buildings.

But it’s not just UK-based businesses looking North West: another defining trend has been the market’s increasing internationalisation. Overseas capital has returned to the UK regions, and occupiers from abroad are now actively seeking space. 

Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com is set to become the first major Chinese online retailer to establish a logistics footprint in the North West having recently acquired the former Asda facility in Wigan (totaling 322,000 sq. ft.). 

This signals not only confidence in the UK consumer market but also growing recognition of the North West’s strategic
importance as a logistics hub on the global stage.

While new developments remain a frequent fixture in the headlines, the logistics sector continues to face high-profile opposition, despite its economic importance. Local resistance is threatening what little new supply there is with PLP Astley in Wigan, the most recent scheme to come under scrutiny from local residents, even after securing a pre-let to Whistl. 

The government has taken strong steps to back new homes and digital infrastructure in the face of NIMBY opposition – but
logistics is struggling for airtime. This is despite the fact that every new home built requires more than 69 sq. ft. of warehousing to support the lifestyles people have come to expect. 

More generally, record rents, sustained demand and a scarcity of available stock are the trends we expect to continue to define the North West’s industrial and logistics market into 2026. The North West has demonstrated its resilience, and it’s not a market we expect to slow down.

North West Market Opinion: Resilience and Record Rents Define 2025

It’s fair to say this summer has been anything but quiet for the UK ‘big box’ logistics market, with leasing activity showing signs of turning a corner after the frustrations of the past 18 months. Total take up in the 100,000 sq. ft + market stood at 18.86 million sq ft, as of the end of August, which is 3.5% up on the same period last year, and 6.3% ahead of the 10-year pre-Covid average.

The Midlands continues to outperform the other regions, reaffirming its position as the UK’s most sought after location for logistics and manufacturing businesses. Take up across the East and West Midlands is currently at 7.6 million sq. ft, with a further 4.1 million sq ft under offer. With very little new speculative development being announced across the region, we are seeing rental growth across all the core locations. Core schemes such as Magna Park Lutterworth, SEGRO Park Coventry Gateway and DIRFT, are now all firmly established in the £10s per sq ft, with the next wave of speculative development expected to push into the £11s across these logistics’ parks.


So, what’s behind the sudden spike in leasing volumes? It can be one of, or a combination of several factors; Trump’s tariffs across the globe making the UK an attractive place to store and distribute stock, building obsolescence and a dwindling supply of good quality, energy efficient buildings, supply chain efficiencies through consolidation and automation, increased defence spending and therefore a surge in military backed contracts, and a more buoyant automotive sector.

Who is taking the space? It’s no secret that Chinese businesses have been very acquisitive so far this year. 

JD Logistics have leased nearly 930,000 sq ft across sites in Milton Keynes, Dunstable and Coventry, with more live acquisitions in the pipeline as they aim to take on the likes of Amazon for UK market share. The market is poised for the next wave of acquisitions from Super Smart Services, having acquired close to 1m sq ft in 2024. Meanwhile, Top Cloud Logistics has entered the UK market with its acquisition of 160,000 sq ft in Birmingham. 

Midlands Take-up by Sector (to end Aug 2025)

Perhaps unsurprisingly, we have seen an uptick in enquiries from defence related companies, with the likes of Babcock, Marshall Aerospace and BAE all having either already acquired warehouse space already this year, or under offer on their preferred buildings. With defence budgets on the rise, this is a trend we expect will continue for several years. 

Alongside the growth in defence-related activity, the 3PLs have remained central to activity, with DP World, Menzies, GXO, Iron Mountain, Fiege and DFDS having a busy year so far. Finally, the supermarkets have been the strongest performing retailer group, with M&S (1.3m sq ft), Tesco (806,000 sq ft) and Sainsbury’s (391,000 sq ft) to name just a few examples.


All-in-all, market sentiment has strengthened considerably this year, particularly for the Midlands big box market. With the busiest period still ahead of us, let’s hope this continues in to the year end, and beyond.

Midlands
Market Opinion

Midlands Market Opinion

For years, an EPC certificate or BREEAM rating was enough to badge a building as sustainable. But expectations have shifted. Investors and regulators are no longer just asking how a building was designed. They want to know how it’s actually being used.

As pressure builds across the value chain, energy consumption data is emerging as a new priority. It’s not just about carbon reporting, it’s about risk management, deal liquidity, and future-proofing portfolios. And in a tightening regulatory and investment environment, the absence of this data is fast becoming a red flag.

A strong EPC rating once gave investors and developers a green tick. But performance ratings don’t reflect how a tenant operates the space. A net-zero-ready warehouse is still a carbon liability if it’s used inefficiently.

Frameworks like the Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark (GRESB) factor tenant use into scoring, and tools such as the Carbon Risk Real Estate Monitor (CRREM) provide benchmarks for carbon intensity - including the recently rebranded “CRREM Misalignment Year.” Yet implementation is still uneven, particularly for multi-let assets, manufacturing and data-heavy buildings, where reliable consumption data is hard to collect.

One of the key challenges is the lack of a centralised or standardised system for accessing energy data. In most of Europe, including the UK, landlords need tenant consent to collect usage data, making the process fragmented and highly manual. Without consistent access to data, carbon accounting is unreliable, and landlords and investors risk falling short of their net-zero commitments. If we want to align as a country with the Paris Agreement, a national solution for data access and sharing will be essential.

This shift to prioritising consumption data raises difficult questions especially for landlords operating under existing Full Repairing and Insuring (FRI) leases. If tenants upgrade equipment, alter HVAC systems or over-spec lighting, those changes can quietly degrade the building’s energy performance. And under current MEES regulations, lease renewals - not just lease starts or sales - can now trigger EPC obligations. The result is that some landlords may be on the hook for costly upgrades to buildings they haven’t directly altered.

So far, enforcement has been light. No fines have yet been issued for non-compliant EPCs, and the process for registering exemptions remains slow. But regulatory change rarely happens overnight, it often comes gradually, then all at once.

DTRE are already seeing signs of consumption data influencing deal flow.

EPC ratings have been subtly influencing transactions, particularly in the leasing market, where energy efficiency directly impacts annual operating costs. There is some evidence of their impact on the investment market, contributing to variations in net effective rents through shorter void periods, longer lease terms, and reduced tenant incentives.

In capital markets, investors are increasingly re-certifying assets during transaction due diligence to account for changing regulations, tenant use/fit-outs, outdated EPC assumptions, or older certificates. Any change in the EPC rating can lead to price adjustments - often significant ones. 

But the conversation is evolving. Driven by growing ESG reporting requirements, consumption data is starting to feature in investment committee discussions. Increasingly, investors and developers are questioning whether housing a high-energy user, without a clear decarbonisation strategy, could undermine their investment value.

This shift could have broader implications. If regulations continue to tighten and energy prices remain volatile, will we see energy-intensive users begin to relocate outside the UK? The feasibility of electrifying UK manufacturing is still under debate, and with the national grid already strained, there are concerns around capacity and resilience.

In practice, this isn’t always feasible. Covenant strength and location often outweigh ESG considerations, particularly in more challenging markets. But there may be other ways to manage the risk. One option is to price it in, charging a rental premium for high-energy users to reflect that risk.

This may already be happening in some sub-sectors and how they navigate the environmental impact of their building. Data centres, for example, are increasingly locating near renewable power sources, co-locating with greenhouses, or building in microgrids and SMRs (small modular reactors) to offset their load.

Measuring energy use is no longer optional - it’s essential for regulatory compliance and for achieving certifications, especially as BREEAM Version 7 has introduced an energy section. Fund managers must monitor energy intensity to comply with regulations such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) - despite a slight delay introduced by the 2025 Omnibus Directive - and the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR), particularly for Article 8 and 9 funds.

For those pursuing net zero through frameworks like the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), accurate consumption data is equally critical. Without it, emissions cannot be quantified, nor can progress toward climate goals be demonstrated. For investors, reliable energy data is now a baseline expectation during due diligence. Fund managers depend on this data to calculate fund-level metrics, such as financed energy intensity, aligned with the EU Taxonomy.

DTRE has observed that lenders and institutions are already starting to reward strong energy performance. In some cases, preferential loan terms are being offered for assets with sustainable credentials or clearly defined brown-to-green strategies. Meanwhile, consumption data is beginning to feature in red book valuations, signalling its growing importance in how assets are assessed, though the precise impact on valuations is still emerging. 

The good news is that the market is moving. According to government data on industrial EPCs, the amount of A and A+ rated buildings has increased significantly in just five years, from 7% in 2019 to 72% in 2024. It shows that the sector is responding, even without a firm deadline in place.

Net zero isn't a label, it's a lived reality. Buildings must prove their performance, not just promise it. That means tracking, managing, and reducing real-world energy use in partnership with tenants. 

Consumption data is a board-level issue that is central to regulatory compliance, investment strategy and long-term asset value. 

Particularly as capital gets more selective, the message is clear: operational performance is the new sustainability benchmark. The era of design-stage box ticking is over. Those who fail to adapt won't just fall behind; they risk being left out of the market entirely. 

EPCs to Emissions: 
Will carbon benchmarks 
drive high consumers offshore?

EPCs to Emissions: Will carbon benchmarks drive high consumers offshore?

During his first term, Trump waited a year before pulling the trigger on tariffs. This time, with four years to prepare, he’s wasted no time at all.

These measures, which he has now diluted, marked a sharp return to aggressive protectionism, triggering a global market meltdown that has caused even loyal supporters like Elon Musk to question their merit.

Despite a long history of friendly diplomatic relations, the latest round of tariffs — regardless of where we land after the 90-day pause — signals a broader shift in trade policy that is already taking a toll on the UK’s science and technology ecosystem. This ecosystem thrives on cross-border collaboration, depends on international supply chains, and is already in an increasingly competitive battle for international capital.

But amid the challenge of shielding the UK economy from global headwinds lies the opportunity to cement its status as a science and tech superpower. Seizing this, however, and avoiding an exodus will require speedy action.

UK universities, spin outs, and start-ups have long benefited from cross-border partnerships as well as a system whereby capital and talent can move somewhat freely. Pharmaceuticals is a prime example of this, with international leaders Pfizer and Moderna partnering closely with the likes of Cambridge and Oxford Universities.

For the real estate market, the collaboration between home and international parties is critical, too. Over the past five years, the average transacted laboratory and mid-tech floorspace for internationally headquartered businesses across the Golden Triangle has been 30,100 sq ft, more than three times that of their UK-based counterparts (8,500 sq ft). These businesses, from all over the world, have also accounted for 40% of all laboratory and mid-tech space leased in the Golden Triangle during that same period, with US companies alone responsible for over a quarter of total take-up.

As Keir Starmer recently warned, Trump’s tariffs could signal “the end of globalisation as we know it.” Should that be true, and their arriving or staying in the UK become economically unviable, the impact on our science and technology ecosystem would be significant. For a sector that depends on openness, cross-border collaboration and global mobility, this threat is more than just economic.

Maybe it’s not all as bad as it seems…

Whilst the outlook remains uncertain – and many economists still anticipate a recession – there are still reasons to be optimistic.  

The UK government has already signalled its desire to position the UK at the forefront of scientific and technological development. In initiatives such as the creation of ‘AI Growth Zones’, the implementation of a new industrial strategy, and the proposed stripping back of regulation that risks holding back the growth of British businesses, we have had a glimpse of what it might mean for the UK to map its own course. 

For this to occur though, the right legislative environment must be in place, building on our existing innovation economy and our competitive advantage through our world-leading educational institutions. 

For example, the government must continue to take action to unlock planning infrastructure, particularly in the Oxford-Cambridge Arc, where restrictive policies and local resistance have historically slowed progress. Whilst a definite step for the industry, the recent Planning and Infrastructure Bill was still quiet on laboratories, mid-tech, and other non-residential assets.

Developers and investors cannot just be passive observers. Real estate too has a critical part to play in ensuring these businesses are set up for success.

Although the supply-demand gap for best-in-class laboratories has closed significantly, with more purpose-built facilities coming to market, a slight imbalance still remains. Active demand in the Golden Triangle (as of the close of Q1 2025) stands at 877,300 sq ft, compared to 828,900 sq ft of up-and-built available supply. As science and technology businesses around the world rethink the shape and scope of their international footprints, we must ensure that we have the right spaces in the right places to meet any change in demand.

While some businesses will inevitably leave the UK, others will return – and with the right incentives, such as R&D tax relief and competitive executive pay, as well as providing the flexible space to grow, there’s a real opportunity to attract new entrants too. 

The established order has undoubtedly been shaken, but it doesn’t spell the end for our innovation ecosystem. In fact, this moment offers a chance for the UK to come back stronger. Parts of the puzzle are already in place, and a growing number of US investors are already eyeing the UK as a safe haven for their capital - but there is still a lot of work to do. Government and industry must act fast to deliver the flexible infrastructure and talent framework necessary to power growth and set us apart.

UK Innovation 
in the Crosshairs: 
Trump and Tariffs

UK Innovation in the Crosshairs: Trump and Tariffs

As we reflect on the UK office market over the past year, it’s clear that the story of the UK office market has split into two distinct narratives which will continue to shape the industry in 2025. Last year, the market saw prime A-grade offices in London and key regional cities thrive, buoyed by rising occupier demand and the race to meet modern sustainability and design standards. In stark contrast, ageing offices in the Grade B class were slipping into obsolescence with little interest in upgrading them.  

The result was a market with no spectrum, no middle ground between the Greenest and Newest and the Greyest and Oldest. For landlords of these older properties, it’s not all doom and gloom. As we look ahead to this year, there is continued opportunity to reimagine these spaces for entirely new uses. Through repurposing for high-demand sectors like Build-to-Rent (BTR), purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA), and even senior living, there’s a promising path forward for those willing to embrace the transformation. 

2024 Recap: The growing divide between Grade A and Grade B  

The contrast between the thriving demand for Grade A offices and older, less flexible Grade B buildings became more pronounced last year. The divide has been starkly evident with the office market having collapsed during the pandemic unlike anything seen before. However, as pricing bottomed out, activity in the Grade A market is rebounding strongly. The pandemic reinforced the importance of the office as a concept, but it also raised the bar: occupiers have now demanded the best quality and green credentials, viewing these as essential for staff retention and attraction. 

The “Big 6” cities such as London, Bristol, and Manchester have led the charge in recovering occupier activity, with Grade A offices accounting for 80% of total take-up last year. Not only that, but they’ve also seen prime rents soar in the last five years. It took nearly 20 years for average prime rents to rise from £20 – £30 per sq. ft. By contrast, the climb from £30 to over £40 per sq. ft occurred in just five years, reaching this milestone in 2023. Markets such as Bristol have already achieved rents of £50 per sq. ft, while Oxford and Cambridge have seen deals exceeding £60 per sq. ft in the past year.

Figure 1. Prime regional Big 6 office rents 

The divide is not just between Grade A and Grade B but also between the Big 6 cities and regional offices. Whereas the “hub-and-spoke" model has largely fallen flat, with many regional offices now destined for obsolescence, these strides of confidence to Grade A in the Big 6 are, in DTRE’s view, something to follow suit sooner than later. These offices have hit the trough of the latest cycle, signalling the time for decisive investor action. 

On the other end of the spectrum, Grade B buildings have faced a different investor landscape, having been hit hard by rapidly transforming sustainability standards and tenant expectations. Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES) regulations were updated and now require commercial properties to hit a C rating on their EPC by 2028, and B rating by 2030. 

A-grade offices remain relatively unharmed by this, while Grade B buildings are struggling to keep pace. The trends of last year suggest older builds might head down a path to obsolescence as they face a more unstable market, with occupiers demanding greater sustainability and flexibility. Owners remain willing to refinance Grade A assets driven by confidence in their future value, but the same cannot be said for Grade B properties. The uncertain future of these ageing assets deters reinvestment, which will leave them increasingly sidelined in the year ahead.

But there’s an upside to this downturn, and this has been found in repurposing obsolete office spaces for high-demand, resilient sectors BTR, senior living and PBSA. As we head into 2025, these conversions are likely to remain a key trend as many landlords are expected to explore how Grade B offices can be transformed into vibrant properties.

These conversions, which don’t have uniquely specific infrastructure requirements, are among the most feasible options for repurposing office properties. The approach also aligns with Local Authorities' growing preference for a ‘retrofit first’ model to prioritise sustainability, and with the UK government’s housing strategy, with regulations that further eased repurposing last year.

Repositioning offers a cost-effective, adaptable strategy for transforming outdated offices into valuable assets again. In fact, ourselves at DTRE are involved with landlords in markets like Oxford and Cambridge who are exploring residential or student housing office conversions.  

This won’t work for every Grade B and below office in every location but, for many, it will provide a valuable alternative to sitting, waiting and hoping on a dramatic up-turn in the UK’s office market at large. 

Senior living is a sector that is often overlooked but holds significant potential for office landlords to explore. Leading doctors have repeatedly warned that our ageing population represents one of society’s greatest challenges, but it also offers investors one of their greatest opportunities. With the number of people aged 80 and over projected to rise by 71.5% by 2042, demand for well-located and well-equipped senior living facilities is expected to soar. That Grade B office may look grey and old, but it could hold untapped potential worth its weight in gold.   

The UK office market has reached an inflection point. Looking to 2025, the focus on sustainability may continue to attract major investment for A-grade, glistening offices in the premium pockets of London, while secondary offices are still caught in a market slump, proving difficult to sell. The absence of a middle ground in demand for non-Grade A have prompted a necessary evolution. This is further reflected in rent incentives for new office lettings. Best in class office rental incentives have remained constant, with net effective rents sitting at 85% - 90% of the headline rent whilst Grade B accommodation is sitting at 70% - 80%. This further demonstrates the polarisation of the market. 

Repurposing obsolete offices into high-demand sectors allows landlords and investors to stay one step ahead: aligning with sustainability goals and meeting the needs of a shifting population – both routes to capitalising on long-term value. Embracing these conversions can revitalise properties that might otherwise be written off, extending asset lifespans and repositioning those landlords – currently on the backfoot – at the forefront of real estate’s evolving landscape. The trends of 2024, including adaptability, sustainability and the potential for repurposing obsolete assets, will continue to shape success in the year ahead. 

From Boardrooms to Bedrooms and Desks to Doctors: Reframing the Value of Offices

Donald Trump won the US Presidential Election and is now set to become just the second man – after Grover Cleveland – to serve two non-consecutive terms as President. Whilst there’s a multitude of various policies Trump ‘might’ enact, from abortion to the Ukraine War, for the purposes of this piece, we will focus on what Trump means for markets, commodities and real estate in the more immediate and medium term and the follow through impact, if any, it will have on the UK.

What is the much talked about ‘Trump Trade’? Trump has promised to ‘end inflation’, cut taxes and interest rates, reduce immigration and put a tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, a tariff of 60% or more on imports from China, and tariffs of up to 100% on some imports from Mexico. 

But how realistic are these goals and will they instead produce higher inflation and higher interest rates?

Whilst tax cuts will boost consumer spending, that will in turn put upward pressure on prices as more money chases the goods and services available, while simultaneously cutting immigration and deporting illegal immigrants will cut the supply of labour and mean that wages in the US push higher. Finally, the introduction of tariffs on imported goods will also increase prices for consumers. All these inflationary measures will mean Jay Powell at the Fed will be unable to increase the cadence of any interest rate cuts. 

Given Trump’s focus on trade tariffs then expect sectors tied to international trade – particularly tech, shipping and consumer goods to experience a degree of volatility. On the other hand, the president-elect’s emphasis on deregulation and corporate tax cuts may well give short-term boosts to industries like traditional energy, financials, and defence. Whilst his chief-supporter, the world’s richest man Elon Musk has seen shares in Tesla shoot up 55% in the last month.

Overall, the evidence suggests that the choice of president has little influence on Wall Street and the focus will instead remain on earnings.

Limited carry across to UK equity markets. The FTSE 100 (- 1.40%) and FTSE 250 (+0.07%) have hardly moved since Trump’s victory. In contrast, the S&P500, the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones are all up north of 2%, having originally risen more than 5%.

Industrial metals, particularly copper, silver, and iron ore were the major casualties from Trump’s victory with Trump’s proposed trade tariffs being immediately viewed as a negative for the sector. 


Whilst tariffs may take months to implement, the commodities sector has been looking to China for additional measures to support its troubled economy. However, hopes for a significant stimulus were dented after a week-long meeting of China’s NPC delivered little in terms of fresh initiatives, leading to further fresh weakness.

Turning to oil, the OPEC+ group of producers may face increased challenges in 2025, not only from Trump’s “drill, baby drill” stance but more importantly from a weak global economic outlook and the energy transition, which is now seeing Chinese demand close to peaking.

The initial negative price response should cover the near-term risks, and Trump’s infrastructure spending plans and potential deregulation could end up boosting demand for metals in the medium to long term. Additionally, the last time Trump imposed tariffs on China, it took almost a year before implementation, and a similar timeframe or a watered-down version may limit the overall impact. Sluggish global demand and rising US stockpiles should limit price increases in oil in medium term.

One of the most obvious reactions to Trump’s victory has been in US Treasuries. Prior to Trump’s victory the US yield curve was gradually normalising as the Fed proceeded with rate cuts. However, now yields have jumped amid the potential for economic reacceleration in 2025 due to Trump’s policies and therefore expectations of higher interest rates from the Fed to counter it (and this explains the rise in the yield on American government bonds in the last 12 days see chart below).


Trump’s victory will likely keep the Federal Reserve cautious about its rate-cutting trajectory.


Higher inflation and interest rates in America don’t automatically mean the same here but investors who know they can make 4.5% from US government bonds may decide that they won’t accept a substantially lower yield from the British equivalent, gilts. Gilt yields affect other borrowing costs such as mortgage and swap rates and so the re-election of Donald Trump may mean a higher cost of debt on this side of the Atlantic, all else being equal.

The relationship between Trump and the Fed will be critical to establishing the success or otherwise of commercial real estate under his leadership.


The US already has significant problems in its office markets, particularly downtown locations with significant levels of vacancy and continued interest rates and bond yields at >4.5% could mean it’s a relatively painful 2025 in the US commercial real estate sector. 


If Trump’s tariffs come into full force then expect more reshoring and re-location of production both in the US but also in Europe, with a chance that the new US protectionist policies might actually end up supporting demand for European and UK manufacturing and logistics warehousing.

From a capital markets perspective, a resurgent US economy and strong dollar will make UK assets look relatively cheap and therefore could usher in a new wave of US Private Equity led investment, albeit the cost-of-capital will remain high, relative to the previous cycle. 


Whilst Europe will look cheaper than the UK from a debt perspective, with German GDP expected to contract in 2024 and a general election in 2025, the French undertaking €60bn worth of tax rises and spending cuts and Italy’s economy forecasted to grow at half the rate of the UK in 2025, then the UK still looks a solid bet.

In terms of leasing, trade barriers and a further period of supply chain disruptions, which the experience of Brexit and Covid tells us, can ultimately lead to more demand for warehousing.

The UK’s life science sector could stand to benefit from the uncertainty created by Trump’s appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who’s pushed false claims about vaccine safety and has been nominated to be the new US secretary of health and human service. In that instance, the UK could be seen as a more business-friendly climate for life science companies, particularly those undertaking drug discovery.


Whilst the listed pharma businesses have all seen declines in their share price since the nomination of RFK Jr, that is largely to do with sales and the potential disruption to a market of over 330 million people. On the flip side, a more business friendly location could attract ‘Big Pharma’ with the associated boost to real estate, chiefly leasing of lab space.

Trump 2.0

The election was certainly one to remember. The Tories achieved the fewest number of seats in their recent history and Labour’s vote share was the lowest ever to have secured a majority. Backed by just a third of the electorate, but labelled a landslide nonetheless.

’ manifesto to see what this all means for the real estate sector and the sustainability agenda at large. Starmer has vowed to change Britain, but are his promises achievable? 

The manifesto pledged the introduction of an Energy Independence Act, aiming to achieve a zero carbon electricity system by 2030. This week, the King’s Speech referred to the ‘Global Climate Challenge’ and our government’s desire to achieve this energy independence. 

During Q1 2024, renewable energy accounted for over 50% of total generation, contributing more than gas for the second consecutive quarter. However, to reach Labour’s ambitious target, there is a long way to go. Installed renewable energy capacity was 49 GW in Q1 2024 and Labour are looking to grow this to 150 GW by 2030. 

To achieve these targets, renewable capacity in the UK will need to grow by 21% annually to 2030 – far higher than in recent years. If Labour do accomplish this, it will be a remarkable achievement: the fastest growing grid decarbonisation in Europe.

UK renewable growth in the past six years and projected for the next six years:

The UK has a huge solar opportunity yet is falling behind neighbours like the Netherlands and Germany where financial benefits for installing PV is encouraging major growth. Unchecked, this gap is likely to grow as the European Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) continues to boost solar capacity across EU Member States. 

The UK has the second largest offshore wind capacity in the world, representing 40% of the European total, with offshore wind output of 49TWh saving the equivalent of 18.5m tonnes of CO2 emissions last year alone.

The new government has promised to improve the planning process for infrastructure projects to progress pipeline projects. Greener energy means greener real estate, and businesses in the sector would welcome a helping hand in achieving their own net zero ambitions.

Ed Miliband has returned to Cabinet as energy secretary having held a similar role from 2008 - 2010. Sources claim he ordered an immediate ban on new North Sea drilling licences but, rest assured, these are merely rumours. The government will only halt new licences for new fields. 

Restricting fossil fuel growth in the North Sea is a welcome policy from a sustainability perspective but, given the UK’s low coal supplies, this may leave us vulnerable in cold winters. To accompany this policy, the government has also agreed to extend the Energy Profits Levy which will help with much needed energy rebalancing. 

The UK is the first major economy to more than half their output: reducing CO2 by 53% between 1990 and 2023. At a reduction of 428 MtCO2e, it’s more than the emissions reductions of the US, Canada, France, Italy and Japan combined.

However, the UK is only halfway to achieving its 2050 net-zero target. Just yesterday, the UK’s Climate Change Committee 

 that the UK’s targets were at risk, urging the new government to rollback Conservative green energy reversals “as a matter of urgency”. With policy pending, what will future forecasts really look like?

The manifesto also refers to the UK becoming ‘the green finance capital of the world’, naming institutional investors and encouraging FTSE 100 businesses to implement net zero plans. We’ve already seen the emergence of Impact Funds in the UK real estate market, aiming to make beneficial social or environmental change alongside returns. 

We expect this ESG-related pool of capital to grow significantly and the market to become increasingly sustainable investment intelligent. Costed decarbonisation strategies are already creeping into transactions, in part to safeguard assets from evolving EU legislation. We expect the UK regulation horizon to align with European (CSRD) or international regulations (ISSB).

For the logistics sector, the National Grid is the single biggest 

. Labour dedicated a section of its manifesto to address this and the King’s Speech reinforced its importance by referring to the creation of Great British Energy (GBE): a new, publicly-owned clean energy generation company that will co-invest alongside private capital. 

GBE will partner with energy companies, local authorities and cooperatives to develop up to 8GWs of cheaper, cleaner power by 2030, and upgrade infrastructure. While we commend Labour for being the only party brave enough to mention the grid, their methodology so far is unclear. 

It’s surprising that we have no further clarity on EPC deadlines. Labour has reversed the decision to waiver MEES for privately rented residential properties but seem to have forgotten commercial assets. For commercial property, this makes long-term planning and budgeting challenging and could lead to a retrofit rush when (or if) MEES deadlines become legislative. 

Labour has committed to restoring the 2030 ICE phase-out for cars, increasing the number of charging points, standardising battery condition information and allocating £1.5bn to new gigafactories. However, it feels like they’ve missed an opportunity in not mentioning logistics fleets, and by focusing their attention on cars rather than vans or HGVs. 

Overall, we are excited to see what the future brings. The Labour government’s sustainability targets are easily the most ambitious in Europe and would certainly bring about ‘Change’. Only time will tell whether the new government’s ambitions will come to fruition. 

Labour & Sustainability: Positive ‘Change’ for real estate, or more empty promises?

Labour’s new planning and housebuilding proposals will boost demand for space and increase rental growth in the country’s logistics market, write DTRE’s Robert Taylor and Will Elvidge.

Fresh off the largest parliamentary majority in a generation, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has vowed that “growth is Labour’s number one priority for government.” With a view to enacting this – and to assuage concerns of a “conspiracy of silence” about the structural, economic and fiscal issues bedevilling the nation (as levelled by the Institute for Fiscal Studies) – Starmer and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves have set their sights on reforming the UK’s antiquated planning system. 

Beyond the renters and prospective homeowners promised 1.5 million new homes, however, there is another group that stands to benefit from the construction boom Labour hopes its planning reforms will engender: investors in the UK’s logistics market.

New homes require new logistics hubs. Labour’s “strategic approach” to residential development, however, will squeeze the land available on which to build these facilities. For private equity and institutional investors, this spells both increased occupational demand and higher rents within the logistics sector – key metrics, and a prerequisite, for any investment decision.

In 2019, the British Property Federation estimated demand for logistics space increased by 6.4 square metres for each new home. This figure will have risen sharply since then due to the acceleration of e-commerce during covid and beyond. 

Online sales today account for 26.9 percent of total retail sales and are set to grow at an average of 7.8 percent annually between now and 2027, according to the British Retail Consortium. Crucially, rather than merely displacing and reformatting logistics demand from one sector to another, e-commerce requires roughly three times as much logistics space as that which services physical retail. 

To put this into perspective, Labour’s pledge to deliver 1.5 million new homes over the next five years is equivalent to circa 9.6 million square metres of new logistics warehouse demand, which could represent an additional 1.92 million square metres of new take-up per annum over the next five years.

Logistics real estate is therefore an unspoken element within the residential conversation, and as necessary for quality housing stock as transport connections or leafy green spaces. A housebuilding boom is a logistics boom.

Rising demand is not the only factor that will draw investors to the logistics market. Implicit within Labour’s promises are also reasons to believe that rental growth, which has risen precipitously in recent years, will continue and even accelerate.

Despite much speculation around Labour’s plans for the green belt – a policy to prevent urban areas spreading into undeveloped land – the government has been clear that so-called “brownfield” and “grey belt” space will be developed first. In reality, this will mean a further loss of the land that has traditionally been utilized by industrial and logistics occupiers, with last-mile operators in major cities especially affected. 

The experience of London over the preceding two decades is likely to be the nation’s writ large. Between 2001 and 2020, Segro estimates that 1,483 hectares of industrial space within the city was lost. It comes as no surprise, then, that since 2001, logistics rents within London have increased by 122 percent, according to MSCI. 

Should Labour’s planning and housebuilding policies further constrain industrial and logistics supply, rental growth for the sector should continue to rise, as new developments are driven further and further out of cities and competition for ‘super prime,’ centrally located assets heats up.

The new government has spent years courting private and institutional investors and, in just its first weeks in power, has promised “catalytic capital” to derisk private investment in critical infrastructure with social value. While logistics might lack the novelty of gigafactories, renewable energy or green steel, the sector is a significant driver of economic growth and ESG development. 

With politicians from all parties now acknowledging the need for a huge number of new homes in the UK, along with Labour’s landside majority, there is newfound confidence that critical velocity has been reached on the issue. Once the government moves from speech to action, we expect logistics real estate to enter the conversation. Even before it has, the attractions from an investor perspective are clear.

To read the article on the PERE website, please click the following link:
