During his first term, Trump waited a year before pulling the trigger on tariffs. This time, with four years to prepare, he’s wasted no time at all.
These measures, which he has now diluted, marked a sharp return to aggressive protectionism, triggering a global market meltdown that has caused even loyal supporters like Elon Musk to question their merit.
Despite a long history of friendly diplomatic relations, the latest round of tariffs — regardless of where we land after the 90-day pause — signals a broader shift in trade policy that is already taking a toll on the UK’s science and technology ecosystem. This ecosystem thrives on cross-border collaboration, depends on international supply chains, and is already in an increasingly competitive battle for international capital.
But amid the challenge of shielding the UK economy from global headwinds lies the opportunity to cement its status as a science and tech superpower. Seizing this, however, and avoiding an exodus will require speedy action.
The world’s scientific melting pot
UK universities, spin outs, and start-ups have long benefited from cross-border partnerships as well as a system whereby capital and talent can move somewhat freely. Pharmaceuticals is a prime example of this, with international leaders Pfizer and Moderna partnering closely with the likes of Cambridge and Oxford Universities.
For the real estate market, the collaboration between home and international parties is critical, too. Over the past five years, the average transacted laboratory and mid-tech floorspace for internationally headquartered businesses across the Golden Triangle has been 30,100 sq ft, more than three times that of their UK-based counterparts (8,500 sq ft). These businesses, from all over the world, have also accounted for 40% of all laboratory and mid-tech space leased in the Golden Triangle during that same period, with US companies alone responsible for over a quarter of total take-up.
As Keir Starmer recently warned, Trump’s tariffs could signal “the end of globalisation as we know it.” Should that be true, and their arriving or staying in the UK become economically unviable, the impact on our science and technology ecosystem would be significant. For a sector that depends on openness, cross-border collaboration and global mobility, this threat is more than just economic.
Maybe it’s not all as bad as it seems…
Whilst the outlook remains uncertain – and many economists still anticipate a recession – there are still reasons to be optimistic.
The UK government has already signalled its desire to position the UK at the forefront of scientific and technological development. In initiatives such as the creation of ‘AI Growth Zones’, the implementation of a new industrial strategy, and the proposed stripping back of regulation that risks holding back the growth of British businesses, we have had a glimpse of what it might mean for the UK to map its own course.
For this to occur though, the right legislative environment must be in place, building on our existing innovation economy and our competitive advantage through our world-leading educational institutions.
For example, the government must continue to take action to unlock planning infrastructure, particularly in the Oxford-Cambridge Arc, where restrictive policies and local resistance have historically slowed progress. Whilst a definite step for the industry, the recent Planning and Infrastructure Bill was still quiet on laboratories, mid-tech, and other non-residential assets.
Playing our part
Developers and investors cannot just be passive observers. Real estate too has a critical part to play in ensuring these businesses are set up for success.
Although the supply-demand gap for best-in-class laboratories has closed significantly, with more purpose-built facilities coming to market, a slight imbalance still remains. Active demand in the Golden Triangle (as of the close of Q1 2025) stands at 877,300 sq ft, compared to 828,900 sq ft of up-and-built available supply. As science and technology businesses around the world rethink the shape and scope of their international footprints, we must ensure that we have the right spaces in the right places to meet any change in demand.
While some businesses will inevitably leave the UK, others will return – and with the right incentives, such as R&D tax relief and competitive executive pay, as well as providing the flexible space to grow, there’s a real opportunity to attract new entrants too.
The established order has undoubtedly been shaken, but it doesn’t spell the end for our innovation ecosystem. In fact, this moment offers a chance for the UK to come back stronger. Parts of the puzzle are already in place, and a growing number of US investors are already eyeing the UK as a safe haven for their capital - but there is still a lot of work to do. Government and industry must act fast to deliver the flexible infrastructure and talent framework necessary to power growth and set us apart.
